In numbers: following the US’ journey from energy importer to power exporter

According to the US Energy Information Administration, 2019 saw the first time in 67 years that annual US gross energy exports exceeded US gross energy imports. However, with its top export markets following the US’ isolationist bent, potential trading partners may not have to rely on US exports, creating uncertainty regarding the US’ long term economic gains. JP Casey finds out more.

Figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) have revealed that in April 2020, the US became a net exporter of energy for the first time in 67 years, with gross US imports of energy reaching 22.8 quadrillion British thermal units (quads), the lowest figure since 1995.

On the one hand, this is a positive for the US energy sector and the Trump Administration, which has aimed to reduce the US’s reliance on importing energy produced overseas, and could help establish the US as a country capable of meeting its own energy needs, at least in the short-term.

On the other hand, there are more long-term concerns for the sector, as many of the trends that have contributed to the US’s increased reliance on domestic production, namely increasing geopolitical tensions, may dissuade countries from entering into large-scale energy trading agreements. Instead, the country may find itself stifling many of the economic opportunities that could arise as the US finds itself with energy surpluses, and in search of international trading partners.

This is particularly true with regard to the US’s relations with China, as the US has sought to distance itself from, and limit trade with, the industrial giant. Chinese coal accounted for just 1% of US coal imports in 2019, while US exports of natural gas to China have plummeted from 17.2 billion cubic feet in 2016 to 6.9 billion cubic feet in 2019.

With uncertainty rife in the energy sector, triggered by both internal political will and external pressures such as the Covid-19 pandemic, it remains to be seen if this trend will continue, and whether this will benefit the US energy industry.

Playing catch-up in the US

“In Europe, offshore wind has been there for a number of years, but I think in the United States we're a little bit behind that,” said Karustis.

Should it be successful, Halo’s approach could lead to a surge in US onshore wind, which has historically lagged behind other regions in terms of wind installation and production. Since 2016, according to the International Energy Agency, the US has installed just 22.6GW of new onshore wind capacity, compared to 30.7GW in the EU, and 50.3GW in China, struggles that Karustis hopes to address.

Last December, the Chinese Government approved a number of new offshore wind projects, totalling 13GW of production and costing around $13.3bn, as the country continues to invest in utility-scale power. Karustis hopes projects like Halo’s distributed turbine can contribute to a more balanced wind sector in the US, with both large- and small-scale operations expanding renewable power.

“The large-scale wind turbines wouldn't be phased out, it's kind of an ‘all of the above’ thing,” he said. “The large wind farms play a very important role for us in reducing the carbon footprint globally, and hopefully the micro wind market is going to augment that by producing energy where energy is being used. It's a good two-pronged approach.”

This two-pronged approach also includes other renewable power sources, including solar and utility-scale wind; Halo is not trying to replace all clean energy with its turbines, but offer another option for people eager to engage in renewable power, who may have been historically sidelined due to the high costs of building utility-scale facilities or the unsuitable geographical characteristics of the places they live.

“When you look at that market we're very excited because just as megawatt-scale wind is a large market, I think distributed wind can be as big of a market or bigger over time,” said Karustis.

“When you have incentives and improvements in the technology, the costs go down, so you can be more competitive and compete, and that's certainly the case with megawatt-scale wind,” he continued. “Just 15/20 years ago, it wasn't competitive with natural gas [and] coal, but it is now. So those government policies have helped and they've driven the technology improvements, so it's all bundled together.”

Rising crude oil exports

The most dramatic change has been in crude oil; while the US remained a net importer of crude oil, its net oil trade declined by 31% between 2018 and 2019, a fall of 4.1 quads, equivalent to around 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd).

This trend was driven by significant increases in domestic US crude oil production, lessening the country’s reliance on imports; US daily oil production increased from 5.4 million bpd in 2010 to 12.2 million bpd in 2019, according to the EIA.

Additionally, the 2015 repeal of a ban on US crude oil exports by the Obama Administration, a moratorium which had been in place since 1977, led to a jump in crude oil exports; in 2014, US annual crude oil exports reached 128 million barrels, but by 2019, it had increased almost tenfold to over one billion barrels.

ANNUAL CRUDE OIL EXPORTS

128 million barrels

2014

1 billion barrels

2019

Strong petroleum production

The US has also seen increases in the production of petroleum products, those which are derived from crude oil, helping to establish balance within the US energy sector.

India and the UK were among the main beneficiaries of this trend. Annual US exports increased by 25.5 million barrels to 170.9 million barrels to India between 2014 and 2019, and by 19.3 million barrels to 122.4 million barrels to the UK over the same period.

Improved efficiency across the US petroleum sector contributed to this improvement, according to Deloitte, which noted in its 2020 oil and gas outlook that “investors are expecting increased efficiency despite slowdown”, and that in 2019 the US oil industry was characterised by “impressive volume growth, moderate capital spending, weak operating cash flows, and a patient investor base.”

petroleum product EXPORTS

144.5

million

barrels

2014

170.9

million

barrels

2019

INDIA

103.1

million

barrels

2014

122.4

million

barrels

2019

Natural gas exports continue to grow

The US has been a net exporter of natural gas since 2017, and the EIA’s latest figures confirm that this trend has continued apace, with gross exports reaching 4.7 quads in 2019, a record high that was a 29% increase on 2018 figures.

A key driver behind this trend has been relatively unstable gas import prices, which have encouraged US industries to look to domestic sources of natural gas, rather than relying on volatile international markets. The average import price of natural gas to the US fell from $5.30 per thousand cubic feet in 2014 to $2.54 per thousand cubic feet in 2019, cratering at just $2.24 in 2016.

This trend was particularly severe in pipeline imports, from Canada and Mexico, with average import prices from these countries falling from $5.21 per thousand cubic feet to $2.44 per thousand cubic feet over the last six years.

Conversely, export prices have remained slightly more stable, only falling from $5.51 per thousand cubic feet to $3.64 per thousand cubic feet between 2014 and 2019, and a number of foreign countries were eager to buy US natural gas over this period.

Exports to Mexico have jumped from 27.5 billion cubic feet in 2016 to 142.4 billion cubic feet in 2019, while Japanese exports climbed from 11.1 billion cubic feet to 201.1 billion cubic feet during the same period.

petroleum product EXPORTS