Can Europe pull off the world’s most ambitious energy project? 

TenneT’s Dutch-based project manager, Michiel Müller, says the consortium came together to proactively consider an approach to the large scale offshore wind roll-out required to combat climate change, but one that is both secure and affordable.

“In July 2019 we shared the result of the broad assessment phase, which concluded that the hub-and-spoke concept is both technically and economically feasible,” he says.

Hub-and-spoke infrastructure, in this context, involves wind farms connected to islands (the hubs), where electricity is converted from AC to DC before being distributed to connecting regions and countries (the spokes); a process, Müller adds, that requires a step-wise approach. In addition to powering homes and businesses directly, some of the energy produced will be converted to gas for use or storage.

On this scale, he explains, this project is the first of its kind: “There is currently really no comparable project out there. The closest is the Kriegers-Flak project, which does have a hybrid asset functionality: providing both grid connection and interconnection.”

On completion, which is currently expected to be around the early 2030s, the hub will operate at around 10–16GW capacity. By 2045, with the addition of other hubs, the project could be supplying 180GW across the European Union according to the group. Currently, although a location has not yet been identified, the consortium is undertaking preparatory work to better understand both the long-term roll-out and initial first stage of the project.

However, as with all big ambitions the project is not short of challenges, which Müller is keenly aware of. Except these obstacles have little to do with technology.

“Of course many of the challenges come with the sheer scale of the project, which is unprecedented… Likely, however, the biggest challenges are not on the technical side, but rather in finding a way to orchestrate this, cross-border, in a strongly internationally coordinated way. It really is a step-change compared to ‘business as usual’.”

The questions raised are significant, not just in the context of international collaboration but in the shadow of what will likely be a difficult economic period following recent events. Müller says that among the issues will be: how are the bidding zones organised when large scale offshore enters the system through hybrid assets; how would cross-border cost allocation work; and how are cross-energy sector projects from a societal cost–benefit perspective assessed?

“We are currently in the process of identifying the topics that need to be analysed and discussed in detail, as well as any potential regulatory barriers that need to be considered,” he says. “It is important that the respective governments find ways to work closely together towards concrete projects, while at the same time structured dialogues are being created with the relevant stakeholders to develop the market and regulatory frameworks that support the development.”

With a lead time of around a decade, Müller urges governments to act now if this project, or others like it, were to have a chance of meeting climate change goals. Speaking specifically of the NSWPH, he says that action needed to be taken soon if the early 2030s target was to be achieved, adding that involved governments “need to take decisions in the coming years”.

“To meet the climate goals we need to considerably increase our rate of deployment and find new ways to integrate this into the energy system. We should also realise that these types of projects generally take around 10 years to build, while we only have 30 years to complete it all,” he warns.

Another issue the project has faced is the fast-approaching UK and European Union cliff edge. Brexit, often forgotten about among recent headlines, has already had an impact according to Nico Van Dooran, director of new business at the Port of Rotterdam (a strategic partner of the NSWPH consortium). He told attendees of a virtual conference at the beginning of July, hosted by Aberdeen’s Oil and Gas Technology Centre, that the political situation had filtered down and hindered the project.

“We have been trying to get the British energy industry involved but Brexit was really getting in the way of all these developments,” he said. “But I think we should continue and share our knowledge on both sides.”

It’s a view shared by Müller: “We believe it is really important that we find a way to work closely with the UK. There is a lot of value in connecting the energy markets and, moreover, the UK's offshore wind ambition is very much aligned with that of Europe; there is great potential for synergies.”

However, by the beginning of July Van Dooran said that although there was some contact with UK-based partners, it was not frequent enough to have an impact: “We are aware of some of the projects that are going on in the UK… But I think we can share more and develop more together.”

When the project was first mooted, with the expectation that the UK would have been more forthcoming, the consortium’s 2019 report had already highlighted the hurdles any success would have to overcome.

“Current policies, market design, and regulatory framework should be urgently reconsidered to enable the successful development of multiple hub-and-spoke projects towards 2050,” it said.

The report added that while it is possible to build a first hub-and-spoke project within the current regulatory framework and market design, significant changes were required in national practices, approaches, planning, and policies to allow for integrated infrastructure projects such as the modular hub concept to become part of the long-term energy transition.

“We are convinced that this massive challenge requires a change in our approach to connecting offshore wind,” Müller continues.

He believes that instead of a national incremental focus, with radial connection of offshore wind and uncorrelated point-to-point interconnections, an international coordinated approach that maximises synergies and the use of the North Sea energy resource, along with connecting energy markets, is essential.

He adds it should be hybrid, combining grid connection and interconnection functionality to minimise infrastructure cost, and be across energy sectors to provide the required large scale flexibility to the system required to ensure security of supply.

Every major infrastructure project has its challenges; this one, however, might have more than its fair share given the current climate. The mantra that nothing is worth doing if it isn’t a challenge is true here though, at least that is the hope. There are several major issues facing Europe in coming decades with the scaling back of coal mining and Germany’s decision to cut its use of nuclear power.

For this reason it can be argued the challenge is worthwhile.

“We approach this from a social-economic welfare perspective. Given the political and societal ambitions with respect to the roll-out of offshore wind, we aim to provide a grid connection concept which maximises socio-economic welfare while providing the security of supply as we know it today,” says Müller.

For now, analysis continues, discussions are ongoing and the project awaits the next move from regulators, whilst it continues its work. There will likely not be an initiative of this kind, with this unique backdrop, again. If it can be got right, the future of sustainable power for Europe has huge promise.